Truman Institute Poll Shows Israelis' Support for Two State Solution Increased After Obama's Speech

Truman Institute Poll Shows Israelis' Support for Two State Solution Increased After Obama's Speech

This was one of the findings of the May-June joint poll conducted among the Israeli and Palestinian publics by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah. The survey was conducted with the support of the Ford Foundation Cairo office and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Ramallah and Jerusalem.

According to the poll, following Obama’s Cairo speech, Israelis’ support for a two-state solution increased slightly from 59% to 63%. Obama’s speech had greater impact on Israelis’ expectations as to the chances for a final status settlement with the Palestinians and for the establishment of a Palestinian state: Assessment that the chances for a Palestinian state are medium or high increased by 10% after the speech, and beliefs that it is possible to reach a final status settlement increased by 6%. The Palestinians were surveyed before the Obama speech.

Among other findings of the Truman-PSR poll:

Iran and nuclear non-proliferation
52% of the Israeli public believes that Israel should bomb the Iranian nuclear reactor if the efforts of the international community to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons fail; 35% oppose it. Among Palestinians, 43% feel that nuclearization of Iran holds positive consequences for the Arab region; 33% view it negatively.

Before Obama’s speech, 35% of the Israelis thought that Israel should accept American pressure if the US pressures Israel to join the nuclear non proliferation treaty; 52% thought Israel should reject it. (This question was not asked in the second survey).

Israeli-Palestinian negotiation track
Following Netanyahu’s refusal to accept the two-state solution and Abbas’ condition for resumption of negotiations that Israel accepts this solution and freezes settlements, 46% of Israelis and 44% of Palestinians expect that negotiations will resume but some armed attacks will continue. 40% of Israelis and 36% of Palestinians think that armed confrontations will not stop and the two sides will not return to negotiations. 6% of Israelis and 16% of Palestinians think that negotiations will resume soon enough and armed confrontations will stop.

Israeli-Syrian track
62% of Israelis oppose full evacuation of the Golan Heights in return for a complete peace agreement with Syria, and 26% support it. If in the peace agreement, Syria will commit to disconnect itself from Iran and cease support of Hezbollah and Hamas, support increases to 34%. 69% of the Israeli public does not believe that the new Israeli government will succeed to lead Israel to a peace agreement with Syria, while 22% believe it will succeed.
 
Arab League (Saudi) Plan
56% of Israelis oppose and 36% support the Saudi initiative which calls for Arab recognition of and normalization of relations with Israel after it ends its occupation of Arab territories occupied in 1967 and after the establishment of a Palestinian state. In the March 2009 poll, 63% of the Israelis surveyed opposed the plan while 33% supported it. Among Palestinians, 57% support the plan and 40% oppose it; in March 2009, 58% supported the plan and 39% opposed it.

The Palestinian sample size was 1270 adults interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip in 127 randomly selected location between May 21-23, 2009. The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli sample included 606 adult Israelis interviewed by phone in Hebrew Arabic or Russian between May 24 and June 3, 2009. The margin of error is 4.5%. The poll was planned and supervised by Dr. Yaacov Shamir of the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University, and Dr. Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR).