June 11, 2024 — A new predictive model for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has been developed by Hebrew University of Jerusalem researchers in the aftermath of the historic terror attack on October 7th and the Israel-Hamas war.  

The model, outlined in a new paper in MedRxiv, determined that approximately 5.3% of the Israeli population—approximately 520,000 individuals—may develop PTSD as a result of these events marked by intense conflict, which has deeply affected the national psyche. The study was led by Ph.D. student Dana Katsoty from the Hebrew University Psychology Department and Michal Greidinger from the University of Haifa. The primary objective was to create reliable tools that can predict the prevalence of PTSD and other mental health challenges in the aftermath of trauma exposure across different segments of the Israeli population based on their exposure levels to the trauma.  

In the study, the research team divided the Israeli population into six distinct groups depending on their exposure to the conflict: direct exposure or close proximity to terror, intense and moderate exposure to rocket attacks, indirectly affected communities, and exposure of soldiers in combat and support units to the battle. Utilizing national databases, the team estimated the size of each group, conducted a literature review to derive PTSD prevalence rates, and performed a random-effects meta-analysis for the prevalence of PTSD in each group. 

The study emphasizes the substantial mental health impact of such mass trauma and provides a crucial tool for policymakers, clinicians, and researchers. Strategic planning and implementation of large-scale interventions represent a potential avenue to bridge the disparity between the extensive needs of the population and the mental health system’s limited resources. This model could serve as a vital tool for preparing mental health interventions and could be adapted for future mass trauma situations globally. 

According to the researchers, “there is a pressing need for the adoption of comprehensive, system-wide models facilitating large-scale interventions. Such models should incorporate evidence-based group therapies, short-term individual protocols, initiatives for prevention and early intervention, and the utilization of digital technologies for monitoring and management of mental health symptoms. Governments should invest in training programs for mental health professionals to enhance their ability to identify and treat PTSD effectively. Integrating predictive models into disaster preparedness plans can assist in the implementation of mental health interventions following mass trauma events, while global collaboration facilitates knowledge sharing and best practices for addressing mental health needs on a broader scale.” 

The research paper titled “A Prediction Model of PTSD in the Israeli Population in the Aftermath of October 7th, 2023, Terrorist Attack and the Israel-Hamas War” can be accessed here. 

Researchers: 

Dana Katsoty1, Michal Greidinger2, Yuval Neria3,4, Aviv Segev5,6,7, Ido Lurie5,6 

Institutions: 

  1. Psychology Department, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel 
  2. Department of Counseling and Human Development, Faculty of Education, University of Haifa, Israel 
  3. Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, New York 
  4. New York State Psychiatric Institute, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York 
  5. Shalvata Mental Health Center, Hod Hasharon, Israel 
  6. School of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Israel 
  7. Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, Kings College London, UK