October 16, 2024 — Israeli public opinion remains deeply divided one year after the Hamas October 7th attacks, with significant differences between Jewish and Arab citizens, according to new Hebrew University of Jerusalem research.

The study also identifies internal division and polarization as the greatest perceived threat to Israel, even as the country faces multi-front conflicts. A majority of Israelis believe the current conflict has deepened societal rifts, particularly on issues related to religion and the nature of the State of Israel. Disputes over these issues are seen as major sources of national polarization.

“Our findings reveal a nation at a critical juncture, balancing serious external security threats while facing profound internal divisions,” according to researcher Nimrod Nir from the Agam Lab at Hebrew University. “This study highlights the urgent need for both strategic action on security and renewed efforts to foster societal cohesion.”

The poll revisits respondents who were surveyed at the onset of the conflict; the research paints a portrait of a nation grappling with deep emotions and divided perspectives. The findings reveal a near-even split in outlooks for Israel’s future, with 37% of Israelis expressing optimism while 34% remain pessimistic. Notably, the data highlights a stark contrast between Jewish and Arab citizens: nearly 60% of Arab Israelis report feelings of pessimism, compared to just 14% who express optimism. These figures underscore the different experiences and expectations of various communities within the country.

Approximately two-thirds of Israelis, according to the research, believe Prime Minister Netanyahu should resign, and a similar proportion supports early elections for the Knesset. Overall, trust in institutions also continues to be a pressing issue, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) enjoying the highest level of public trust. A significant majority supports establishing a state commission of inquiry into the Hamas attacks and believes that failure to do so would endanger national security.

In evaluating military operations, about 80% of respondents believe the northern campaign (Lebanon) meets or exceeds expectations. In contrast, there is considerable disappointment with the progress in Gaza. More than half of Israelis view the release of hostages as the primary goal in the fight against Hamas, with over 70% supporting a deal to secure their release in exchange for halting military operations.

Lastly, reflecting the future uncertainty about life in Israel, fewer than one-third of Israelis believe their children will experience a better reality than their own. Approximately 20% of Israelis are contemplating emigration, while only half of Arab citizens definitively rule it out.

Methodology

The survey was conducted via the internet and by telephone between September 29 and October 1, 2024, with 2,542 men and women consisting of a nationally representative sample of the adult population in Israel aged 18 and over (Jews and Arabs). The margin of sampling error stands at +/-3.2%, affirming a confidence level of 99%. Field work was carried out by iPanel.

Researchers:
Nimrod Nir, Ido Seltzer, and Nimrod Zeldin – Hebrew University of Jerusalem